VHeadline.com's roving commentarist Fred Cederholm writes: I’ve been thinking about predictions. Actually I’ve been thinking about the USA November elections and what I know is coming at us in the next four years. No, I didn’t suddenly develop a Nostradamus gene, or find a crystal ball. I’ve learned so much in preparing these columns and discovered far more in researching those coming down the pipeline.

The writing is on the wall — those who don’t study and comprehend history will be forced to relive it.

The polls still show the two major presidential candidates in a dead heat. I don’t believe the final outcome will even be close because in the intervening weeks before the election, there will be an “occurrence” triggering all the “un-decideds” to decide in the same direction. Our next elected US president WILL be a Yale graduate, a “bonesman,” and a globalist.

But, I fear whoever wins, loses; because the next four years will be characterized by two words — crisis management. Too many systemic problems are out there that have been ignored, sugarcoated, and/or botched.

Think interest rates: The quarter point rate hikes of the past three months won’t cut it much longer. Demands for capital to fund our deficits and capitalize our interest payments are sucking up new foreign investment to the tune of a billion and a half a day. It has truly amazed me that the biggest borrower in the galaxy (Uncle $ugar) has been allowed to set the interest rates for as long as it has — and keep them at forty-year lows! Just to keep financing the rollovers of existing debt instruments will require upping the interest rate ante.

Think energy: We have been fuelish/foolish for far too long. Oil prices will rise significantly — they have to! How much longer can “OPEC unity” control member nation price setting? Production growth is far outpaced by demand/consumption growth. Two thirds of US oil needs are now met from foreign suppliers. China and India are consuming 25% to 30% more oil than they did just one year ago. The worldwide energy infrastructure is already functioning at near full capacity and can afford no breakdowns. Global vulnerability is so very terrorist friendly … and I’m talking about oil, natural gas, and electrical infrastructure here (at home and abroad).

Think bailouts: Uncle $ugar has extended far too many “full faith and credit” guarantees to far too many ticking time bombs. The Feds not only underwrite guarantees for financial institution deposits and Social Security, but also to private pension funds, flood insurance, terrorist act insurance, mortgage backed securities, specialized industry loans, and our outstanding fiat paper currency. Remember the Savings & Loan mess — it will prove a cheap picnic by comparison.

Think taxes: More of “our income” will go to government(s). Tax reductions at one level will be more than eclipsed by increases at another. In Illinois, 9 of 10 school districts face deficits — nationwide is it any different? 3 out of 5 cities are hurting financially. How many state governments are maxed out, and are behind in meeting current obligations? Remember schools, municipalities and states can‚t print more money — and Uncle $ugar shouldn’t!

Think bankruptcies: Debt restructurings and bankruptcy filings have become a growth industry. The debt loads in all sectors — governmental, corporate, and personal — are at record levels any way you define them. Home equity loans have made the American domicile a veritable ATM/cash station to supplement/supplant family income — in many cases replacing unsecured debt with secured debt and thereby putting the family home at risk.

Think investments: The stock markets will take a real ride. Investors will be forced to cash out in an effort to get liquid. More “Enron magnitude” accounting scandals will surface from creative accounting excesses. Derivatives and stock options will be shown for what they are. GAAP financial presentation will once again replace the fictional “proformas” as the standard for sound investment decisions.

We the people – will survive these crises and tribulations.

We will finally realize we can no longer rely on government to fix things for us.

We must look to ourselves, our families, our friends, our neighbors, and our Faith to get us through what comes.

In the final analysis, what else really is there?

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Fred Cederholm is a CPA/CFE, a forensic accountant and writer who contributes the column “TH*NK*NG” to The Weekly Observer in Creston, (Ogle County) Illinois. He is a graduate of the University of Illinois (B.A., M.A. and M.A.S.) and can be reached at mailto:asklet@rochelle.net