| 6/12/04 | Poll of Palestinians for PA President |
Poll: 127 Date: 06 December 2004 The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) is pleased to announce the results of poll no. 127, which is focusing on the knowledge of the Palestinians’ tendencies and inclinations towards their favorite candidate for the PA presidency, their opinion about the boycott of Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine ( PFLP ) of the presidential elections. This poll is directly conducted after the announcement of the Central Election Committee on Thursday, 3.12.2004, of the ten names of the candidates and is carried out in the shortest possible time using face to face interviews with the Palestinian citizens, who are entered in the Register of Voters. We hope that this survey will be of benefit to you, and please don’t hesitate in sending us your comments. Assuring you our best services now and in future, we remain Yours faithfully Dr. Nabil Kukali and Prepared by President Dr.Nabil Kukali. (39.8%) being till now the highest rate of support in the run for the Presidency of the Palestinian Authority, would be given to Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin), followed by Marwan Barghouthi (21.9%), (44.4%) oppose to Hamas attitude of boycotting the presidency elections. (42.0%) oppose to the Popular Front’s (PFLP) attitude of boycotting the Presidency elections. (39.9%) believe that the retreat of Marwan Bargouthi from the candidacy was a wrong decision. (85.0%) They will participate in voting for the election of the PA President, which will be held on January 9, 2005? From Majd Kokaly – Information Section In the most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) in the period from 3rd to 5th of December 2004 a random sample of (977) Palestinian adults was involved. The sample is chosen from the Register of Voters and represents demographic models from the West Bank, incl. East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. The interviews took place according to PCPO’s experienced methodology on the basis of random choices at respondents’ homes, i.e. face to face. Dr. Nabil Kukali, PCPO President, stated that “the most important issue the results of the poll revealed is that Mr. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) has obtained the highest score of support as candidate of the PA presidency, followed by Marwan Barghouthi in the second position and Mustafa Bargouthi in the third”. “It has been further noticed”, Dr. Kukali said “that the biggest boost to Abu Mazin came from the supporters of Fatah movement, followed by Marwan Barghouthi. Dr. Kukali added that “the conductance of this poll in this period and at this speed should be considered as an important factor for giving the candidates a picture about the popular support to them and to be always at the latest state of the Palestinian affairs”. Dr. Kukali said:” I trust this step will represent a protrusive role of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) in serving the democracy process on the field of the elections for the presidency of the Palestinian National Authority”. The poll has revealed that (85.0%) of the Palestinian people are intending to participate in voting for the election of the PA president scheduled on Jan. 9, 2005, whilst (3.8%) said they won’t vote, and (11.2%) “Didn’t decide yet”. “The sampling error throughout the survey is found at (±3.13%) and that of the refusal (2.0%). The percentage of female respondents was (48.3%) whilst that of the male ones was (51.7%). As to the marital status, the distribution of the sample was as follows: (64.8%) married, (30.1%) single, (2.3%) Divorced, (2.8%) Widowed. The average age of the random sample of the respondents was 32.4 years. The respondents’ location of residence was as follows: (48.1%) City, (30.9%) village / town and (21.0%) refugee camp”, said Dr. Kukali. Dr. Nabil Kukali said the results of the poll where as follows: 1) Are you going to participate in voting for the election of the PA President, which will be held on January 9, 2005? 06 December 2004 1. Yes, I will (proceed to question no. 2) 85.0% 2. No, I will not (jump to question no. 3) 3.8% 3. I didn’t decide yet. (jump to question no. 3) 11.2% 2) The deadline of the candidacy was the midnight of Dec. 1, 2004. Ten presidential candidates will run in the election. Below is the list of their names according to the priority of their registration. Please put a circle around the name of your choice. 06 December 2004 1. Mustafa Barghouthi (independent candidate) 13.6% 2. Abdul-Sattar Qassim (independent candidate) 3.2% 3. Mahmoud Abbas (candidate of Fateh) 39.8% 4. Bassam Al-Salhi (candidate of the People’s Party) 2.2% 5. Tayseer Khalid (candidate of the Democratic Front) 3.5% 6. Abdul-Karim Shabeer (independent candidate) 2.5% 7. Hassan Khreshe (independent candidate) 2.2% 8. Marwan Barghouthi (independent candidate) 21.9% 9. Abdul-Haleem Ashqar (independent candidate) 1.7% 10. Sayyed Barake (independent candidate) 0.4% 11. I didn’t decide yet. 9.0% 3) Do you think that the presidential elections will be run in an impeccable way, or not? 06 December 2004 1. Impeccable 49.9% 2. Unimpeachable 31.8% 3. Don’t know 18.3% 4) Do you think that Hamas attitude of boycotting the candidacy for the PA presidency and not participating in the presidential elections was a right or a wrong decision? 06 December 2004 1. A right decision 36.9% 2. A wrong decision 44.4% 3. Don’t know 18.7% 5) Do you think that the attitude of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) of boycotting the candidacy for the PA presidency and not participating in the presidential elections was a right or a wrong decision? 06 December 2004 1. A right decision 34.0% 2. A wrong decision 42.0% 3. Don’t know 24.0% 6) Do you think that the PLC-member Marwan Barghouthi, having recently announced his candidacy for the presidential elections as an independent candidate and by doing so retreated from his previous decision not to run in the election and to boost the candidate of Fateh movement, has made the right or the wrong decision? 06 December 2004 1. The right decision 39.1% 2. The wrong decision 39.9% 3. Don’t know 21.0% 7) Which of the following issues you think is the most important one on effecting your choice of the presidential candidate? 06 December 2004 1. His political program 25.5% 2. His political engagement 30.6% 3. His economical program 16.4% 4. His qualifications and personal capabilities. 22.9% 5. Otherwise, please specify 4.6% 8) There is a set of important issues which may effect your vote for the candidate of your choice. Please put a circle around the issue you think it is the most important one (you can have more than one choice). 06 December 2004 1. Right of home return for the refugees 22.5% 2. Development and economic prosperity 15.6% 3. Jerusalem 27.1% 4. Combating corruption 17.6% 5. Democracy and human rights 7.7% 6. Security 9.5% 9) The relation between the participation or the non-participation in the elections and the political support of the Palestinian parties and movements. Yes, I will participate No, I will not participate Didn’t decide yet Fateh 53.2% 13.5% 29.0% Hamas 10.4% 48.6% 29.9% PFLP 3.2% -------- 5.6% Islamic Jihad 2.3% 13.5% 9.3% Other parties 30.9% 24.4% 26.2% Total 100% 100% 100% 10) The relation between the support to Mahmoud Abbas and Marwan Barghouthi from Fatah movement supporter: Mahmoud Abbas Marwan Barghouthi Fateh 73.6% 26.4% 11) Sex composition of the sample: 06 December 2004 1. Male 51.7% 2. Female 48.3% 12) Religion: 06 December 2004 1. Muslim 96.5% 2. Christian 3.5% 13) If elections were being held today, which political party would you vote for? 06 December 2004 1. People’s party 2.5% 2. The popular front for the liberation of Palestine (PFLP) 3.4% 3. Fatah 48.9% 4. Hamas 14.0% 5. The democratic front of the liberation of Palestine (DFLP) 4.3% 6. The Islamic jihad 3.6% 7. FIDA 1.3% 8. Liberation (Tahreer) Party 0.4% 9. popular struggle (nidal) front 0.6% 10. Palestinian Liberation Front 0.8% 11. Arab Liberation Front 0.4% 12. Independents 16.1% 13. Other 0.3% 14. None of the above 3.4% 14) Practice of religion: 06 December 2004 1. Secular 9.4% 2. Religious 60.8% 3. Traditional 27.8% 4. Religious activist 2.0% 15) Martial status: 06 December 2004 1. Single 30.1% 2. Married 64.8% 3. Divorced 2.3% 4. Widowed 2.8% 16) Sample distribution: 06 December 2004 1. West Bank 65.7% 2. Gaza Strip 34.3% 17) Number of years of study: (12.3) years. 18) Number of individuals living in the same house (including all ages): (7.3%) person. Methodology: A stratified 3-stage cluster random sample of 977 individuals 18 years or older was selected from the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza Strip. The first stage involves selecting 60 clusters with populations of 1,000 or more individuals (after stratification by district and type of community- urban, rural, and refugee camp) with probabilities proportional to size (PPS). The second stage involves selecting 10 households in each of the chosen clusters. Stage 3 involves selecting one individual in each household using Kish tables. Face-to-face interviews are then conducted with the selected individuals. PCPO Profile: The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) was founded in February
1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr.. Nabil Kukali, who becomes the president for
this center since that time. After the arrival of the Palestinian Authority
(PA), the PCPO was registered as a research center under license number
(2/†√). The Palestinian Ministry of Information issued
the license that permits establishing satellite offices elsewhere in
the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The PCPO has a team of well-trained interviewers
throughout the Palestinian territories. It is dedicated to conducting
public opinion surveys workshops and focus group sessions on various
topics, and rendering services in the field of investment, including
feasibility studies. Contact Person: Dr. Nabil Kukali Tel: 02 2774846, Telefax: 02 277 2034 Mobile: 0547 216643 / 059726878 Email: kukali@p-ol.com |
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