PORT-AU-PRINCE, Jan 12 (IPS) – Rene Preval, who takes power next month as president of Haiti, is no political neophyte, having already served a sharply truncated term as prime minister of a country where ‘’instability’’ is a byword for the status quo.

As the first of the four prime ministers who held power during the tumultuous sequence of change and upheaval that followed the historic election of President Jean Bertrand Aristide in 1991, Preval got a baptism of fire.

Aristide was overthrown in a coup the next year. Exiled for three years, the first fairly elected President of Haiti was restored to office at the barrel of U.S. guns. Aristide spent the final year of his tenure preparing for the elections which brought his friend and political soulmate to power.

Preval won last December’s elections without much difficulty though the conduct of the polls – and whether they should have taken place at all – were disputed even within his own party. He gained 87.9 percent of the votes.

Observers say the new president has neither the charisma nor the popularity of his predecessor and could be in for a torrid time.

A small, bearded man, Preval is 52 years old. Militantly opposed to the Duvalier dictatorship which dominated Haiti in a father-son Dynasty from 1957 to 86, Preval is known to oppose economic liberalism.

He is a determined man with a sometimes aggressive style.

As prime minister in 1991, Preval disguised himself as a porter in order to be able to check cargo on a boat reputedly involved in illegal trading. And he personally delivered letters of dismissal to employees in the civil service.

Sources close to the new administration say the new president’s priority will be to re-establish the authority of the state on all levels by reinforcing public security, applying laws effectively and fighting corruption and waste.

First, Preval will need to unite his Lavalas movement. Its internal conflicts – evident in the run up to the polls – have not been healed by electoral success.

Elements within the broad-based popular party wanted Aristide to serve another three years to make up for the time he spent in exile. The view that the elections should be held in accordance with the constitution held sway.

‘’There’s hypocrisy all down the line,’’ says one official of the Lavalas movement who asked not to be identified. ‘’Certain militants favourable to holding the elections – as required by the Constitution despite Aristide’s lost three years of office – are now considered as traitors.’’

Preval will have to contend with these internal differences while keeping a wary eye open for former supporters of the military dictatorship who still harbour a return to the old order.

And the president will need to attract the goodwill of the international community, reassure the upper class, reach a compromise with the opposition – and strengthen his popular base by creating jobs and reducing the high cost of living.

Already, the United States has announced it may withdraw its military contingent from the U.N. Mission for Haiti should the mandate be extended for another six months by the U.N. Security Council – something Preval pledged to request.

Washington wants the U.N. Mission’s term to end as scheduled in February. There are indications the United States would keep a military force in the Caribbean country as part of a re-baptised operation.

Lakdhar Brahimi, the U.N. envoy for Haiti, has asked Haitian Foreign Minister Fritz Longchamps to submit a demand for the extension to the Security Council regardless.

The first 100 days of the new government are likely to be a busy time. Parliamentary manoeuvrings on the budget and economic reforms – including privatisation of public companies – will be major concerns, analysts say.

External influence on the dependent economy is strong. In a speech to Parliament Monday, President Aristide himself said the international community spent more money organising the elections than relieving the misery of the Haitian people.

Some of the main outlines of the new government’s policies are already perceptible. It is expected that some ministries will be eliminated, including those dealing with the condition and rights of women, culture, and Haitians abroad. A new ministry of communications may be created to replace the present information ministry.

After Preval’s investiture, Aristide’s will concentrate on restoring the unity of the Lavalas political movement, the most important party in the country.

Some of his supporters in private harbour the suspicion that Aristide might launch a new political party with himself as leader. Others, however, believe that an eventual political failure of Preval could destroy the hope of Aristide’s supporters of seeing him return to power in 2001, with a revival of the right and the independents instead.

In the meantime, the outgoing president will get married to an American-educated lawyer. (END/IPS/IMC/96)

Origin: Amsterdam/HAITI-POLITICS/ ----

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