WASHINGTON, Nov 28 (IPS) – Events in Haiti once again threaten to muddy the waters for a U.S. administration which is entering an election year already burdened with Bosnia and the budget.

While officials of the Bill Clinton administration publicly dismiss suggestions that they plan to extend the mandate of U.S. troops in the Caribbean country, sources privately acknowledge their concern that a pullout any time soon may be too risky— both for Haitians and for Clinton’s standing at home.

But sources say the administration is contemplating leaving troops in Haiti for six months to a year after the scheduled withdrawal of United Nations peacekeeping forces on Feb. 29.

‘’It will probably be necessary for the U.N. presence to be extended beyond February, and that extension will probably be for at least six months,’’ one senior U.S. government official who works on Haiti told IPS.

‘’What is motivating these moves is a firm decision on the part of Washington not to have Haiti become unglued’’ in the run-up to the U.S. presidential elections in 1996, the government official added.

Press reports on Haiti have not helped the administration’s attempts to paint Haiti, and the Oct. 1994 return from exile of Jean-Bertrand Aristide as a foreign policy triumph for President Bill Clinton. But the timing could not be worse.

The images of street violence in Haiti threaten to discolour a U.S.-led, United Nations peacekeeping mission, even as Washington gears up for debate on whether the United States should contribute 20,000 troops to an international force in Bosnia.

Secretary of State Warren Christopher tried to sound upbeat in a television interview Monday night: ‘’There has been an upsurge in violence (in Haiti), but not nearly the violence we have seen in the past,’’ he said. ‘’United Nations troops will leave on the 7th of February. United States troops are part of those.’’

The current U.N. mandate is tied to Haiti’s presidential elections, set for Dec. 17, and the presidential inauguration scheduled for Feb. 7. Some 2,500 U.S. forces form part of the 6,000-strong U.N. peacekeeping force, which began their last March, some five months after U.S. forces returned an exiled Aristide to office.

Human rights groups and Haiti lobbyists here welcome signs that peacekeepers may stay on in Haiti. They warn that inadequate attempts to disarm the population and train Haitian police could undermine any stability.

The Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) argues that the international troops have not done enough to disarm forces and train police.

‘’There is little to indicate that the national police are up to the task of maintaining order,’’ Rachael Nields of WOLA told IPS, noting that ‘’Transitions are almost always accompanied by violence.’’

In the meantime, much to the dismay of officials of the Clinton government, Aristide is once again the central figure in the increasingly bad press on Haiti.

One nationally syndicated television talk show which featured high-profile journalists at the weekend depicted the Haitian leader as a ‘’psycho’’.

‘’The Cia said that Aristide was a psycho, and now he is indicating that he is in fact a psycho,’’ said Former Jesuit priest turned talk show host John McLaughlin of the McGlaughlin Group.

Howard Fineman of Newsweek agreed: ‘’He is a psycho but he’s our psycho’’.

The reports have focussed on the perception that President Aristide may be planning to ignore U.S. wishes and remain in office for the next three years.

The latest stream of speculations followed Aristide’s statement to supporters in Port au Prince last week. He told a conference on national unity he would consult with leaders of opposition parties and business groups before making a decision on whether to seek a second term.

Yet other reports link Aristide’s emotional outburst two weeks ago at a slain relative’s funeral to the deaths of about 10 persons.

‘’Accompany the police when they are going to enter the homes of the people who have heavy weapons,’’ Aristide said. ‘’Tell the police not to go only to the poor neighborhoods, but to go to the neighbourhoods where there are big houses and big men and heavy weapons.’’

The New York Times in an editorial Sunday, titled, ‘’Mr. Aristide’s Deadly Rhetoric,’’ said the Haitian leader had ‘’alarmingly reverted to his demagogic political style that scarred his presidency before the 1991 military coup’’ that ousted him.

On Monday, two human rights groups condemned violence by pro- government crowds. In an open letter to Aristide, the New York- based Human Rights Watch and the National Coalition for Haitian Rights cited the Haitian president’s speech at the Nov. 11 funeral for Jean-Hubert Feuille.

They charged that President Aristide gave the Haitian public orders to disarm anti-government sectors of society, but that he should now publicly condemn mob violence.

The relationship between Haiti and the United States have been further complicated by Aristide’s reluctance to privatise key state enterprises. Washington admitted this month that it was withholding 4.6 million dollars of an Emergency Balance of Payments Support Programme.

The White House says it is concerned about political conditions in Haiti. But Spokesman Mike McCurry said Monday the White House takes on faith Aristide’s stated commitment to preside over the succesful restoration of democracy by seeing the inauguration of a democraticlly elected president. (END/IPS/YJC/95)

Origin: Washington/HAITI-U.S./ ----

[c] 1995, InterPress Third World News Agency (IPS) All rights reserved

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