UNITED NATIONS, Feb 28 (IPS) – China, normally the most quiet of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, is on the verge of blocking the extension of U.N. peacekeepers in Haiti.

Angry at Haiti’s warm relations with Taiwan, the Chinese government Wednesday threatened to veto any measure by the Council to extend the U.N. troops for another six months.

The threat prevented a scheduled vote on the Haiti troops from taking place — just one day before the soldiers are to end the United Nation’s year-long mission in Haiti. Unless the Council agrees on a brief extension of the force by Thursday night, the troops may have to leave promptly on Mar 1.

Officially, China says it is concerned that the United Nations wants to keep too many troops in Haiti, for too long after their scheduled departure date on Thursday night.

But many diplomats here feel those concerns are simply a pretext for Beijing’s distaste for countries that deal with Taiwan, the state created by China’s former Kuomintang government when it fled the Chinese mainland for the island of Formosa.

Until Wednesday, diplomats here were confident they had cut a deal to keep at least 1,500 troops of the U.N. Mission in Haiti (UNMIH) in the country for another six months, after days of haggling with China.

But Canada, which has promised to replace the departing U.S. troops as the main force behind the multinational UNMIH, has argued that 1,500 troops may be too few to patrol Haiti or assist its police force effectively.

As a result, the Security Council remains divided, with Washington and its allies calling for 1,900 troops to be in Haiti for the next six months, and Beijing insisting on at most 1,500 troops for four months.

One British diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, told IPS that the other Council members are willing to compromise about the time limit, but not on the number of troops.

‘’You need a force big enough to fulfill the mandate, and that is 1,900 troops,’’ the envoy said. But he added that the United States and Britain are willing to consider a four-month extension, as long as there remains an option for the troops to stay two months longer if they are still needed.

But one U.S. diplomat, who asked not to be named, doubted that compromise would be enough to satisfy China. ‘’They haven’t given their reasons’’ for threatening to veto the extension, he said. Other diplomats confess they remain confused about what China wants, other than retribution over Taiwan.

Beijing has been angry since last month, when outgoing Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide invited the vice president of Taiwan to the ceremony in which he turned over the reins of office to his successor, Rene Preval. Aristide had irritated China years earlier by calling for Taiwan to be included as an independent state in the United Nations.

The People’s Republic of China, however, still claims Taiwan as part of its nation, and vowed ‘’serious consequences’’ for Haiti. That threat has become more serious with Chinese warnings of a rare use of its veto in the Council.

That threat, in turn, has led to real fear among U.N. diplomats over whether Haiti’s democracy, briefly overturned by a 1991-94 military junta, could survive if U.N. forces departed immediately.

‘’Right now, we think it is very difficult for Haiti to maintain the present (security) situation without UNMIH,’’ Miguel Angel Borelli Rivas, the Venezuelan foreign minister, told IPS Tuesday.

But he added glumly, ‘’Probably the veto from China will win and the force will be stopped immediately.’’

Others are more upbeat. Several Security Council diplomats contend the body will likely accept on Thursday a two-week extension of the current UNMIH mandate, to give time for further negotiations with China.

‘’It’s not the first time we’ve stopped the clock for negotiations,’’ one diplomat said. ‘’That’s a classic diplomatic process.’’

The United Nations is expected to underscore how badly Haiti, just 17 months after its democratic government was restored, needs the troops in the short term.

U.N. Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, noting the inexperience of the newly-trained National Police, warned they still need help in maintaining law and order, two and a half years after a U.S. force restored Aristide to power.

Some analysts remain worried that the right-wing forces that contributed to Aristide’s 1991 ouster, including the paramilitary Front for the Progress and Advancement of Haiti (FRAPH), could terrorise the country once the U.N. troops leave. FRAPH has been linked by human rights groups to as many as 4,000 killings during the military period.

But other U.N. experts, including special envoy to Haiti Lakhdar Brahimi, are more optimistic about Haiti’s security.

‘’We have no reason to believe FRAPH exists anymore,’’ Brahimi said during a recent visit to the U.N. headquarters in New York. The envoy added that Haiti is ‘’becoming more and more clearly a state of law,’’ although he conceded that the police still need training to avoid use of excessive force.

Bill O’Neill, consultant to the New York-based National Coalition for Haitian Rights, agreed that Preval’s government faces few threats over the coming months. ‘’There’s no organised resistance in Haiti right now,’’ he said.

‘’If there’s street violence…I think things could slide backwards,’’ he added. ‘’I’m more concerned about the situation a year from now,’’ once Haiti has receded from the world spotlight.

But few observers believe, China’s actions notwithstanding, that the United Nations will abandon Haiti now. Haiti is regarded as a success for the United Nations, and for U.S. President Bill Clinton — who, amid a tough election year, therefore has an investment in making sure that the country remains at peace. (END/IPS/FAH/YJC/96)

Origin: Washington/HAITI/ ----

[c] 1995, InterPress Third World News Agency (IPS) All rights reserved

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